The Cerberus programme is intended to provide Border Force with a new and unified data analytics system and, in doing so, avoid failures of intelligence and help tackle organised crime
Home Office leaders have given a clean bill of health to an ongoing £200m-plus programme of work intended to close a “critical gap” in how data is used at the UK border. It has been revealed, however, that the Cerberus programme will cost over £40m more than previously projected.
The Cerberus system will help address this issue by providing Border Force officials with “a highly capable analytics and targeting system, that brings transformative change to our border intelligence and targeting capability [by joining] together contextual and reference data, for both passengers and goods, into a single system”, according to a newly published accounting officer assessment.
The review document – a periodic requirement for all programmes in the government major project portfolio (GMPP) – explains that the current gap is caused by “users having to access multiple systems”.
“This inability to bring and utilise all data within one system reduces operating effectiveness and efficiency and ultimately limits success across Border Force’s strategic pillars,” the assessment adds.
The updated version of the review document – which has been released in light of leaders refreshing the project’s business case – provides amended financial estimates for the programme.
The assessment reveals that the new business case forecasts that the overall delivery cost of Cerberus will come in at £241m. This compares with a projection of £198m set out in the most recent annual set of government major project data, released in summer 2023.
Some £115m has already been spent as of the end of March 2024, with a further £126m to be spent between the current year and 2024/35.
This outlay is expected to deliver net value of £46m. This compares with overall programme benefits of £172m as projected in the annual major project data set published last year.
Value for money is one of four areas in which government’s Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) requires named accounting officers to assess programmes, alongside regularity, propriety, and feasibility.
The regularity section of the assessment – which is undersigned by Home Office permanent secretary Matthew Rycroft – sets out the project’s data ethics and governance policies, as well as where legislative updates will be needed.
“Cerberus will not use any data that the Home Office does not have authorised access to,” the review says. “The Home Office has ongoing discussion with HMRC about interpretation of existing legislation specifically in relation to data sets shared by HMRC, the extent to which they can be processed in Cerberus and onward sharing. Bids for primary legislation have also been tabled in relation to changes required to enable Cerberus bulk data exchanges and processing of a wider range of HMRC data sets including onward sharing in bulk with other government departments.”
The propriety segment adds that “the administration of Cerberus will include oversight on the appropriate use of data with ongoing monitoring and audit to detect and prevent improper system use”.
“The programme is working to ensure that the use of the data is appropriately even handed and does not prejudice any protected groups, as is the collection of that data,” it adds. “The Cerberus capability will increase our intelligence picture and understanding of threats, risks, and vulnerability. Actions arising from the analysis of data by the Cerberus capability will be appropriately targeted towards unlawful activities and, again, shall otherwise be appropriately even-handed.”
‘Challenges’
The most recent GMPP data set revealed that the project had been assigned a delivery confidence rating of ‘red’, indicating that “successful delivery of the project to time, cost and quality appears to be unachievable, [and] there are major issues which, at this stage, do not appear to be manageable or resolvable”.
The feasibility section of the assessment acknowledges that “Cerberus has had challenges over the years and incurred delays, [but] the programme has delivered capability into live use during that time and continues to improve our ability to deliver”.
The segment concludes: “The programme has an improving record of delivery to schedule and has made several changes to programme management practices over the last year. The programme has acted upon recent recommendations from the IPA to make further improvements to programme management mechanisms, whilst currently planning to go through another IPA review late 2024. The Cerberus programme continues to forecast delivery within its agreed schedule, cost, and quality constraints.”
As of last year, the programme was slated to conclude delivery by the end of March 2025.
To support this objective, in December 2022 the digital and cyber specialist arm of defence contractor BAE Systems was appointed to a 32-month £38m contract with the Home Office. The firm was retained to provide “Cerberus product development and associated services”.
The accounting officer assessment provides further details of the intended benefits of the new data analytics system – in particular the impact on efforts to tackle criminals operating at the border.
“[The] ability to aggregate data and harness analytics capabilities will lead to a more efficient and effective workforce,” it says. “A clearer data picture will result in better identification of threat and risk, increasing threat detections and seizures, and improving the flowrate of legitimate traffic. By connecting intelligence and data across modes, Cerberus will provide insights into the activity of serious organised crime and counter-terrorism groups, reducing intelligence failure and economic and social harm.”
